Predictability - Do you want it or not?

[KTC]

In my critique group we do a little something on the side. When we are finished with the excerpts, we try to predict the next excerpt of each others' work...say where we think the story will head next. Sometimes we nail the next person's excerpt. Sometimes we are so far off it's not funny. I like it when my critiquers don't nail the predictability. I like it when they guess one direction and then I take them in another. Others seem to get disappointed when we guess wrong. They were looking for us to guess the direction correctly. What are your own opinions with this? If you gave someone 10 pages of your WIP and they were able to guess the pages that followed, would you be bummed out? Or would you be bummed out if they could not predict the following pages?

Does anybody else do an exercise like this with fellow writers? (I actually find it helpful and would recommend it.)

[FloVoyager]

Never done this before, but it sounds interesting.

I think a little predictability is good. Otherwise readers may have trouble following the story. But there should also be some clever surprises, to make things more interesting and keep people reading. So I wouldn't mind readers guessing some of what was going to happen, but I'd also want to surprise them at points.

[Bufty]

I don't mind foreshadowing to give a clue or inkling as to what's coming. But if I could do it, I'd like to think they read on because they didn't know and felt they had to keep turning pages to find out. Or, they knew, but couldn't wait to read on to see how the protagonist was going to handle whatever it was.

But that's the whole point of writing isn't it?

[Siddow]

I think I lean toward unpredictability.

If you know what's going to happen, why read on? I HATE that in movies. I love it when I think I know what's going to happen, and then am surprised. There's that "Wow! I never saw that coming, but it makes so much sense!"

The thing to watch out for though, is trying to be so unpredictable that you write something that doesn't come naturally from what came before. That's the trick, and one I have yet to learn. Sigh.

[Nicholas S.H.J.M Woodhouse]

If you know what's going to happen, why read on? I HATE that in movies. .

i think some movies thrive on the viewer knowing what is coming, eg (without wanting to spoil films for people) Scarface, or a more obvious example - aliens vs predator was a film that people only went to see because they knew what was going to happen, some kind of face off.

i think the tragedy in stories comes when you know whats going to happen and its inescapable for the characters, and thats often stories at their best.

someone may know whats going to happen, but its how you write it that makes them feel it when it comes, and thats why people read on. they know whats coming, but they don't know how you'll do it (eg - horror movie and death, film noir and demise of the femme fatale....)

[LeeFlower]

I always ask my betas/test readers what they think is going to happen next. I want to make sure there's enough forshadowing that they're not like "we have no freakin' idea," but at the same time, I don't want them knowing exactly what's going to happen, because then there's no point.

I think it's cool when they guess what the characters are going to do next ("Oh, she's definitely going after the treasure first"), but can't guess the whole story ("She's going after the treasure and then a big swamp monster's going to attack").

[blackbird]

I love the idea, but would it not be possible for the guesses to unitentionally influence the writer one way or the other? Or is that the whole idea?

[KTC]

I love the idea, but would it not be possible for the guesses to unitentionally influence the writer one way or the other? Or is that the whole idea?

No black. The WIPs are already written. The authors know the next part already.

[Forbidden Snowflake]

I like to think, oh oh oh oh oh, oh my, oh oh oh, I got it, oh my, oh darn, I was wrong, dude, it's even better :hooray:

Err, yes, I do sound like that in my head when I read.

[blackbird]

No black. The WIPs are already written. The authors know the next part already.

Gotcha.;)

[ChaosTitan]

Couldn't their guesses also reflect the portion of the WIP that they have read? If your ten pages clearly set up a character and what ails 'em, then what they do next should be easy enough to guess (barring the sudden insertion of a plot twist that the reader just couldn't have seen coming).

Then again, if the ten pages isn't quite that precise, then no, the reader probably won't be able to guess what's next.

I don't want my work to be predictable, but there is a certain level of "I can see where this is going" in everything.

Except maybe Terry Pratchett.

[KTC]

Couldn't their guesses also reflect the portion of the WIP that they have read? If your ten pages clearly set up a character and what ails 'em, then what they do next should be easy enough to guess (barring the sudden insertion of a plot twist that the reader just couldn't have seen coming).

Then again, if the ten pages isn't quite that precise, then no, the reader probably won't be able to guess what's next.

I don't want my work to be predictable, but there is a certain level of "I can see where this is going" in everything.

Except maybe Terry Pratchett.

Hey Chaos,

Like I said, this is something we just do on the side...for fun. What I've been noticing is that we're really trying to guess accurately. Like it's become something that actually matters.

What I like is that I set this particular story up to have a lot of twists in it. I'm getting amazing feedback. They are all anxious to read the next excerpt to find out what happens next. There's an accidental barn fire. Then a discovery that the house beside the barn also burned down. Then an accidental death as a result of the fire. Then the discovery that the death was a murder. Then the discovery that the barn fire and the house fire are unrelated. Then the discovery that the murder took place long before the fires. Then the discovery that one of the main character's brother is the murderer. It really goes in unpredictable tangents. Nobody (but one almost correct guess) has guessed the next move in my excerpts to date. I like it this way. I don't seem to be alienating them at all...they are just loving the ride so far. I am concerned that I derail them eventually...but this is something we talk about during this part of our meetings. We discuss one excerpt from another also, and whether the fact that we guessed the direction wrong matters...or how disappointed we are that the excerpt took us in a direction we didn't want to go into.

It's just something we do for fun and to explore each other's minds. It's rapidly becoming the favourite part of the evening.

[ChaosTitan]

It's just something we do for fun and to explore each other's minds. It's rapidly becoming the favourite part of the evening.

Actually, it sounds like a lot of fun. :D I love plotting, and trying to guess where other people's stories are going sounds like a terrific challenge. And could make for a cool thread here at AW (somewhere in Share your Work, perhaps?).

KTC - Your novel sounds intriguing, too, by the way. ;)

[Anonymisty]

That sounds like a wonderful exercise!

When I'm reading, I like to get to the end of the book and be surprised by where the story went, yet be able to look back and see the clues that I didn't catch on to when I read them. It takes a bit of finesse to pull it off, but that's just part of learning the craft.

And I really, really, REALLY despise books in which the author waits until the next-to-last page to introduce the bad guy. As a reader, I should at least have all the clues at hand, even if I don't guess the ending. Hiding vital information from me is cheating, in my opinion.

Did any of that make sense? *grin*

[scarletpeaches]

I like, "Oh, so THAT'S what happened next - I should have realised that, back in chapter three when he said..."

Lay clues, but not obvious ones. The reader should feel stupid (why didn't I get that?), not the writer (well, they sure could see THAT coming).

[maestrowork]

It depends. I don't like cliches. I don't like to see something I've seen a million times. I like to be surprised (but in a good way). However, sometimes having a familiar plot is nice. For example, knowing that the guy is going to get the girl at the end of a romantic comedy is a nice comfort, and if it doesn't go that way, it wouldn't be a very pleasant surprise for me.

I like unpredictability, but it has to be credible. If something happens unexpectedly and I go, "Wait a minute, that just doesn't make sense. The guy would NEVER do that!" Then you're lost me. However, if I say, "Wow, I didn't see it coming -- he totally surprised me -- but it's just brilliant!" then you've had me bowing before you and kissing your toes. OK, I'll just bow.

One thing I learned about writing stories is that there are always choices. Some options are obvious, simple, straight-forward, and some are twisted, strange and different. Neither are wrong or bad. However, when you have a choice, always choose something that creates the most intense results or conflicts, one that raises the stakes more significantly, and one that offers your readers the most satisfaction.

[janetbellinger]

I always read the last page before I reach the end exactly because I want reasssurance that no matter what bad things happen, there is a happy ending or at least one that is tolerable. I like to read that the couple stayed together after all.

[Anonymisty]

I always read the last page before I reach the end exactly because I want reasssurance that no matter what bad things happen, there is a happy ending or at least one that is tolerable. I like to read that the couple stayed together after all.

I was watching Hidalgo last summer, and when I reached the part where they're in jeopardy in the desert, I stopped the DVD and demanded that my husband (who'd already seen it) tell me whether or not the horse lived to the end. I couldn't face watching another minute of it if the horse died. *grin*


And no, I'm not telling you whether or not I finished watching...just in case someone hasn't seen it and wants to.

[emsuniverse]

I like a certain amount of predictability but not enough for me to know EXACTLY what's going to happen. I want to have an idea, but not necessarily know for SURE.

[PeeDee]

If it's too predictable, there goes your dramatic tension.

"They think he's a killer, but they must have the wrong guy, there has to be some...oh...no, wait, my bad, he actually is a killer."

"Oh well. THey think that he's going to return to his life of crime, but he has a family now, he's actually going to...whoops, looks like he does return to a life of crime. Whoops."

"Well, he's a family man, a father, and he's been living in peace for ten years, he's hardly going to just go shoot every--...oh....wow, he sure shot everyone there, didn't he?"

"Well, you can't go home after all that! Yeah. I see it. He went home."

(can anyone tell me what fairly recent movie I just described?)

I like leading the reader in one direction and then not so much jerking them sharply in another direction as having them suddenly look up and realize that they were on a different path than they thought the whole entire time, and just now realized it.

Like the middle-to-end of Secret Window, when the clues clicked in my head and I went "OH MY GOD! Wow! WOW!"

[ChaosTitan]

(can anyone tell me what fairly recent movie I just described?)


Highlight it, just in case some folks don't like movie spoilers:

A History of Violence?

Good description of it, though, PeeDee. ;)

[C. L. Richardson]

If you gave someone 10 pages of your WIP and they were able to guess the pages that followed, would you be bummed out?

Yeah, I would. I like throwing twists at people and I would have much more confidence in my creative abilities if everyone guessed wrong.

[scot free]

If someone could nail exactly where I was going with a story, I'd stop writing it and start over. If they could do it every time, I'd quit. That would mean that my writing was either boring, or loaded with cliches.

Being a writer, I'm sure most of us can go to movies and guess what's going to happen next or figure out what is happening in a story way before others can. Why? Because we know all the cliches. We see the obvious and sometimes the not so obvious plot twists. Heck, I can even guess what's going to happen when I'm watching wrestling. (Booker-T's the man, btw).

Anyways, predictability is not entertaining. Sure, I realize that the good guy's probably going to win, and the bad guy's probably going to lose, but give me a good ride getting there. Don't give me the usual by the numbers plot. I love when I read a novel or watch a movie and at the end say: "I never saw that coming."

[zeprosnepsid]

I think it depends on the kind of book. Sometimes I want to read something that will stimulate my brain, sometimes something that will stimulate my emotions. And sometimes I'm burnt out and I just want to enjoy a nice predictable love story.

Particularly with love stories, I think the reason the cliched version of them still sells in books and movies is because we really enjoy reading it over and over again. I don't want them to not end up together or him to die or anything like that. I want them to meet, fall in love, be torn apart for some silly end of second act reason and come back together.

But that's also not what I'm going to read/watch if I want to think or be enlightened. But after a hard day at work when I'm fried, I reach for predictability.

[maestrowork]

It really does depend on the genre. Romance demands HEA. Love story has that A meets B, A gets B, A loses B story arc. Thrillers can spin twists like yarns, but the hero must solve the problem and save the world at the end. It's about expectations and comfort level. It's not to say you should follow the same path everyone else has done before. Twists are fun.

[MidnightMuse]

I love and prefer a good twist followed by several turns. If a reader tells me what they think is coming up next, not only do I go postal, if they were right I change it. Well, sometimes I can't but I want to.

Obviously your characters have to follow a path you've created, and behave accordingly unless you can properly explain any deviations. But I love twists and surprises.

I dispise movies where I've figured out the big 'secret' right away. (M Night Shamalamadingdong isn't as clever as he'd like to be) And books that read the same.

[NightWynde]

My favorite plot device is "Take a nice, normal life and throw a monkey wrench into it." Granted, in horror, the meanings of both "nice" and "normal" are stretched to the limit, but it's the whole monkey wrench that brings the unpredictability and without that there really isn't a story.

For example, I've got a current WIP that has a boy who loves baseball but his Mom won't let him play outside with the other kids. Sounds like a straightforward tale of abuse until I toss in the monkey wrench about the boy's father.

[DeborahM]

Predictability might work if the antagnoist murdered the first of two, but was not the murderer of the second through a manical twist in a mystery. Predictability is for the ending, justice wins out, the guy get the girl, etc.

In my last manuscript, I kept the reader thinking they knew who it was (twin brother) however, I never introduced him as the twin, just a name as a penpal who the reader later found out was related to the protagnoist.

Unpredictability is the hook to keep the reader turning the pages along with foreshadowing, cliffhangers and great subplots.

It's a bummer to go to a movie and half way through, because of our writing ability, figure out the end, especially at today's prices!

[ChaosTitan]

It's a bummer to go to a movie and half way through, because of our writing ability, figure out the end, especially at today's prices!

Ha! That's probably why I don't go to the movies that often. If I'm going to guess the ending twenty minutes in (**coughTheVillagecough**), I think I'd rather spend half as much to rent the sucker.

Actually, M. Night owes me a rental fee for that film. :rant:

[NikkiR]

I have to say that I don't go to the cinema unless I really want to see a film.

[Ordinary_Guy]

I love the idea, but would it not be possible for the guesses to unitentionally influence the writer one way or the other? Or is that the whole idea?
That was my initial thought as well – and if a writer is bringing in their latest 10 pages or so I could easily see it happening. In KTC's group, they were apparently all finished so the danger goes down (assuming nobody is motivated into a rewrite).

Still, danger or no, I've done the same thing with my beta readers. When I would ask, I would have the next bit planned out but not necessarily written (at least with the most daring of my beta readers).

There's a certain balance between expectation and surprise, between giving the audience what they want and throwing them a curve ball. I try and do both, very intentionally, and I usually engineer expectations met so that the curve balls have higher impact. Getting a feel for where the reader thought it was going gave me great insight to how the narrative was affecting the reader.

My reaction to their reactions:
When they guessed it – and I was hoping they would – then I knew the narrative had momentum in the right direction.
When they guessed it – and I was hoping they wouldn't – then I knew something was a little too obvious.
When they didn't guess it – and I was hoping they would – then I knew the narrative was missing something.
When they didn't guess it – and I was hoping they wouldn't – then I tried not to snicker out loud and did my best to remember where they thought it was going.
Just as helpful as learning where they thought it was going was learning why they thought so. Sometimes it was just a feeling for them, sometimes they could name certain events that gave them the expectation.

It was a great, great tool.