How long until society collapses?

NewKidOldKid · Nov 8, 2011

Let's say a virus (or zombies, or whatever) kills most of the Earth's population. How long until the survivors go back to living a very primitive life?

For example, how long until all the medications on shelves expire and we no longer have antibiotics?

How long until we ran out of gas (or gas evaporates or becomes too weak to work) and we cannot drive anymore?

How long until all the food in shops is gone and we have to choice but to live off the land?

I understand many of the answers depend on how many people are still alive, so let's say 10 % percent of the population survived.

Would you say we'd run out of anything modern (food, medications, etc.) within five years? 10?

And what happens after? Can I walk into a library and find a book to teach me how to make antibiotics? Or would that be impossible for the lay person without a proper lab setup?

Charles Farley · Nov 8, 2011

If you are going to make society collapse then why bring the old ideas back?

Create a new one ..

NewKidOldKid · Nov 8, 2011

Charles Farley said:
If you are going to make society collapse then why bring the old ideas back?

Create a new one ..

What old ideas? Antibiotics? I'm pretty sure survivors would like to hold on to that.

Purple Rose · Nov 8, 2011

Greek society will collapse any minute now. Might get some answers there.

Charles Farley · Nov 8, 2011

NewKidOldKid said:
What old ideas? Antibiotics? I'm pretty sure survivors would like to hold on to that.

First of all . .you want them to live a primitive life? There were no antibioctics to help these people. So your timeline is already fucked.

No gas . .no help . .

Doi some research .. or ask better questions . .

NewKidOldKid · Nov 8, 2011

Charles Farley said:
First of all . .you want them to live a primitive life? There were no antibioctics to help these people. So your timeline is already fucked.

No gas . .no help . .

Doi some research .. or ask better questions . .

No, I don't want them to live a primitive life. It's 2011, then puff, 90% of the world is dead. Now what? How long until we lose all those things (antibiotics, the use of gas, etc.)? How is my timeline fucked? I said "they have antibiotics, then virus kills most people (so factories no longer working, etc.), now what"? How is that not in the proper order?

And what's with the hostility?

I know what it was like 100, 200, 300 years ago. I want to know how long it will take for us to lose access to things like antibiotics and start reverting to a more primitive way of life, where a simple infection might kill you because you no longer have access to the proper medication.

Captcha · Nov 8, 2011

Charles Farley said:
First of all . .you want them to live a primitive life? There were no antibioctics to help these people. So your timeline is already fucked.

No gas . .no help . .

Doi some research .. or ask better questions . .

I don't understand this. The OP isn't asking to build a time machine and be transported back to a time where the modern world never happened. The OP is asking about living without the modern infrastructure that we take for granted. There's no timeline issue, and I have no idea what your second paragraph is meant to convey.

OP, there's a pretty cool book called The World Without Us that looks at what would happen if humans all just disappeared. I don't think it gets into specifics, like how long antibiotics would last, because it's assuming that ALL humans are gone. But it has some interesting points about the physical artifacts that would, or would not, survive.

Maybe there's some sort of Survivalist manual you could find for the more specific questions? I bought a First Aid manual that was geared to remote situations, but it was written with the (obvious) assumption that the medics would be providing, well, FIRST aid, with the priority being getting the patient to modern medical facilities as soon as possible. And the medics were also, as I recall, expected to have at least basic modern first aid kits with them.

It's an interesting question - I'll be watching the thread!

NewKidOldKid · Nov 8, 2011

Captcha said:
I don't understand this. The OP isn't asking to build a time machine and be transported back to a time where the modern world never happened. The OP is asking about living without the modern infrastructure that we take for granted. There's no timeline issue, and I have no idea what your second paragraph is meant to convey.

OP, there's a pretty cool book called The World Without Us that looks at what would happen if humans all just disappeared. I don't think it gets into specifics, like how long antibiotics would last, because it's assuming that ALL humans are gone. But it has some interesting points about the physical artifacts that would, or would not, survive.

Maybe there's some sort of Survivalist manual you could find for the more specific questions? I bought a First Aid manual that was geared to remote situations, but it was written with the (obvious) assumption that the medics would be providing, well, FIRST aid, with the priority being getting the patient to modern medical facilities as soon as possible. And the medics were also, as I recall, expected to have at least basic modern first aid kits with them.

It's an interesting question - I'll be watching the thread!

Thanks for the answer. I saw the documentary Life After People, which I'm assuming is similar to the book (?). It doesn't touch on things like medicine and all that because... well, there are no people left to use it.

I guess what I'm hoping is that it would be possible to hold on to some things, like modern medicine. Maybe not advanced surgery, unless a surgeon actually survived, but at least medication and basic skills (which is why I was asking if I could learn it from a book) and maybe gas (at least for as long as possible and I don't know how long that is).

I think my biggest question is "how long can we hold on to the way of life we're used to"? Once all medication expires (in five years? ten?), then we're in big trouble. And once we cannot longer drive, then we'll be stuck living close to home, without the ability to go check distant lands and see if somebody's alive over there. Unless horses survived too, then you have a few more options.

GeorgeK · Nov 8, 2011

NewKidOldKid said:
where a simple infection might kill you because you no longer have access to the proper medication.

Sort of by definition simple infections don't kill healthy people. They do cause morbidity, but mortality is the realm of complicated infections.

Your scenario will hinge upon who are the people who survive. If you have people with a mind for science and they manage to salvage a decent library, society will bounce back much quicker. If the new leaders blame science and burn the books and crucify the scientists then they should embrace the new dark ages with welcoming arms. There've been many books with this as a scenario and the two factions meet up three generations later.

NewKidOldKid · Nov 8, 2011

GeorgeK said:
Sort of by definition simple infections don't kill healthy people. They do cause morbidity, but mortality is the realm of complicated infections.

Your scenario will hinge upon who are the people who survive. If you have people with a mind for science and they manage to salvage a decent library, society will bounce back much quicker. If the new leaders blame science and burn the books and crucify the scientists then they should embrace the new dark ages with welcoming arms. There've been many books with this as a scenario and the two factions meet up three generations later.

The infection thing was just an example. What I meant is that we no longer have antibiotics and we obviously need them.

As for survivors... you know, regular people. If you have a town of 100 residents and a virus kills 90 at random (let's suppose the virus is random for the sake of the argument), the 10 that are left will be a mix: the guy who delivered pizzas, a teacher, a cop... whoever happens to survive.

There will no book burning or anything like that. No organized groups either and nobody in charge (or maybe somebody is, but phones don't work, so the survivors have no idea). The 10 people who survived will band together and try to survive. Same with groups of survivors in other areas. Who you have in your group is a matter of luck.

And yes, everybody wants to keep "modern life" alive as much as possible. I would too. I would want a big bag of drugs, a gun and a car before I take a single step. I'm going to go on the assumption that my characters will want the same (because they're my characters and they'll do what I tell them!).

I know society will probably bounce back over decades/centuries/ whatever. I'm more interested in the worst period. Right after the virus kills 90 % of people, it's pretty bad, but at least there's still bottled water, food, medicine. 50 years from that, maybe things will start coming back. What happens in between? When does it get REALLY bad? A year after the virus? 5? 10? How long can people survive on what's available before things expire, stop working, etc.?

Charles Farley · Nov 8, 2011

Thanks for the answer. I saw the documentary Life After People, which I'm assuming is similar to the book (?). It doesn't touch on things like medicine and all that because... well, there are no people left to use it.

I guess what I'm hoping is that it would be possible to hold on to some things, like modern medicine. Maybe not advanced surgery, unless a surgeon actually survived, but at least medication and basic skills (which is why I was asking if I could learn it from a book) and maybe gas (at least for as long as possible and I don't know how long that is).

I guessing the suvivors have no back medical knowalge . . they would have to learn from a book unless they are just will to be surgeons . . . have you read the Stand .. i'm just aking .. no hostillity . . ?

GeorgeK · Nov 8, 2011

NewKidOldKid said:
When does it get REALLY bad? .?

2 months into the first winter

DrZoidberg · Nov 8, 2011

Oh, look, a serious book on it.

http://www.amazon.com/dp/0143117009/?tag=absowrit-20

There's loads of examples from history. There's also been miles of books written on the subject.

NewKidOldKid · Nov 8, 2011

GeorgeK said:
2 months into the first winter

That soon? Why?

Charles Farley said:
have you read the Stand

Yes. Seen the movie too. There's a scene where they're attempting to perform surgery using instructions from a book. Of course the person dies. That's an extreme case, though. Smaller things they'll still be able to treat by going to the pharmacy and taking drugs as needed. So life will still work based on modern principles ("let's use this pill to get rid of pain or infection") for a while. It will eventually get much worse.

You know, this seemed like such a simple question when I first asked it.

Williebee · Nov 8, 2011

Two months into the first winter, unless they've managed to round up livestock and store some veggies, they are going to start starving. The hungrier they get, the weaker they get.

This also is impacted by location. Forex: if they are up north, the water is frozen, they'll have to break through or thaw just to get a drink.

If ten percent of humanity survived, does that mean that ten percent of the rest of animal life survived? If so, they're gonna be hungry, too. These folks might start looking worth the risk.

Also? If ten percent of humanity survived, what traits allowed for that? The strongest, the fair skinned, shortest, thinnest, tallest, their location?

NewKidOldKid · Nov 8, 2011

DrZoidberg said:
Oh, look, a serious book on it.

http://www.amazon.com/dp/0143117009/?tag=absowrit-20

There's loads of examples from history. There's also been miles of books written on the subject.

Thanks, but this doesn't really help. First of all, we don't exactly know how long it took for these societies to completely collapse. Was it one year? Two? 10? It was too long ago, so time is measured on a different scale (in terms of centuries, rather than years).

Also, ancient societies were a lot more connected to basic things. They knew how to grow crops, they knew how to make fire, they knew how to use herbs to treat health problems. We are a lot more dependent on things that have already been made for us. I guess at some point we're going to have to go out and look for willow bark to treat a headache, but most people will keep using Tylenol for as long as possible.

My question is still about us. Not any society, not ancient civilizations.

Let me give an example from a current TV series, The Walking Dead. Let's say the basic premise is the same: group of people survives, they're alone, they start to move. The show is about the here and now, so it won't explore my question, but if the same people kept going and going for years, at some point they would lose their RV, their guns and the bunch of antibiotics that help one of the characters survive an injury.

Now, when will that be? Because at that point is when things will get really bad.

NewKidOldKid · Nov 8, 2011

Williebee said:
Two months into the first winter, unless they've managed to round up livestock and store some veggies, they are going to start starving. The hungrier they get, the weaker they get.

This also is impacted by location. Forex: if they are up north, the water is frozen, they'll have to break through or thaw just to get a drink.

If ten percent of humanity survived, does that mean that ten percent of the rest of animal life survived? If so, they're gonna be hungry, too. These folks might start looking worth the risk.

Also? If ten percent of humanity survived, what traits allowed for that? The strongest, the fair skinned, shortest, thinnest, tallest, their location?

Thanks, this makes a lot more sense. I still wasn't expecting huge trouble so soon. If only 10 percent of people are left, they should be able to find enough canned/dry food to survive for a while, right? Wouldn't there be warehouses with tons of food somewhere? Ok, so the lucky ones near the warehouses will survive and the ones up north will not. Let's say my group is in an ok situation (not the best, but also not the worst).

I'm not 100 % sure who survived and why. I will eventually figure this out but I don't want to give the answer in the book. The characters don't know. They survived and others didn't and that's all they know. It certainly wasn't just the strongest or youngest.

Animal life, not sure yet either. Either they all survived (the virus only affected humans) or only a 10 % survived. There are no big animals (lions, etc) where my characters are, so the worst thing would be hungry dogs.

ETA: Actually, I have a question. Let's say they don't manage to store any veggies and livestock by the time winter comes. They could choose to keep moving. If they have a bus or a few RVs, they can just keep driving to the next town (they might find some leftover food there), sleep in whatever house they find, then move on again. When they cannot longer drive to the next town is when things will get really bad.

aadams73 · Nov 8, 2011

I killed off most of the planet with a virus, too, and the answer to your question is: not too long.

People, for the most part, aren't going to be all civilized about this. They're going to grab and horde what they can (food, medicine, supplies), as soon as they can. The have-nots will then move in and try and take from the haves.

Aside from the natural side effect of utilities, businesses, etc. collapsing because there aren't enough workers, things are going to break down quickly as we set aside our civilized ways and become the animals we still are. We'll do whatever is necessary to survive, and much of the time it won't be pretty.

We've become a flabby species, really, and I think a lot of people would fold and die. It's become the human way to sit around and wait to be rescued. Folks are going to do a lot of sitting around and waiting before they even think about picking up a shovel or finding a cow to milk. By then it'll be too late; they'll die, cozied up to that plasma TV they looted from Wal-Mart.

Expiring medication is the least of it. It won't have time to expire. Plus who would care about the use-by date if that's all the medication they've got, anyway? I sure wouldn't be sitting around going, "Gee whizz, this Tylenol expired last month!"

Sure, there will be those of us who have the wits and will to form mutually beneficial communities, but for a long time that'll be the exception rather than the rule. Forty years ago, I might have said otherwise.

NewKidOldKid · Nov 8, 2011

aadams73 said:
I killed off most of the planet with a virus, too, and the answer to your question is: not too long.

People, for the most part, aren't going to be all civilized about this. They're going to grab and horde what they can (food, medicine, supplies), as soon as they can. The have-nots will then move in and try and take from the haves.

Aside from the natural side effect of utilities, businesses, etc. collapsing because there aren't enough workers, things are going to break down quickly as we set aside our civilized ways and become the animals we still are. We'll do whatever is necessary to survive, and much of the time it won't be pretty.

We've become a flabby species, really, and I think a lot of people would fold and die. It's become the human way to sit around and wait to be rescued. Folks are going to do a lot of sitting around and waiting before they even think about picking up a shovel or finding a cow to milk. By then it'll be too late; they'll die, cozied up to that plasma TV they looted from Wal-Mart.

Expiring medication is the least of it. It won't have time to expire. Plus who would care about the use-by date if that's all the medication they've got, anyway? I sure wouldn't be sitting around going, "Gee whizz, this Tylenol expired last month!"

Sure, there will be those of us who have the wits and will to form mutually beneficial communities, but for a long time that'll be the exception rather than the rule. Forty years ago, I might have said otherwise.

Thanks. This is very, very helpful.

The image of a survivor reading the expiration date on a label made me laugh

I wasn't thinking so much of the date on the label but of the date in which the medication no longer works (I understand they lose potency gradually; at some point they will no longer do what they're supposed to do).

ETA: Just went to your website and your book sounds great. It's going on my to-buy list!

Becky Black · Nov 8, 2011

I sort of wondered, while I was reading The Stand actually, what happens to the nuclear reactors when there are no longer people to tend them? I think if I was a survivor I'd be getting bery nervous about those. But could I get anywhere away from them? There are parts of the world without any nearby of course, but am I going to be able to get there before the first meltdown.

Fire is another problem of course, when there's nobody to put it out it will just spread and spread. The movie 28 Days Later depicts the entire city of Manchester burning down.

Tinned and dried foods would last for a long time - not only in the sense they'd keep, but as there's only a tenth of the number of people eating them. But perishables would be gone in days and frozen shortly after when the electricity went off. You could probably survive okay on tinned and dried foods - humans are like dogs, we can live on any old rubbish. Not very healthily of course.

There's presumably still crops in the fields, so if they can harvest some before they rot, they've got a supply of fresh food for a while. And things like potatoes or apples will keep for months in the right conditions even without refrigeration. Grain will keep for a while, and that's kept in large stores. Could take a while to work their way through that! So it could be weeks and months before they run out of fresh foods and grain entirely, though the variety will be limited. By that time they could have organsied themsleves to either start farming or hunting and gathering.

I do love these kinds of stories. The Stand, The Day of the Triffids, I love them. Good luck with it.

Snick · Nov 8, 2011

NewKidOldKid said:
Let's say a virus (or zombies, or whatever) kills most of the Earth's population. How long until the survivors go back to living a very primitive life?

For example, how long until all the medications on shelves expire and we no longer have antibiotics?

How long until we ran out of gas (or gas evaporates or becomes too weak to work) and we cannot drive anymore?

How long until all the food in shops is gone and we have to choice but to live off the land?

I understand many of the answers depend on how many people are still alive, so let's say 10 % percent of the population survived.

Click to expand...

That probably wouldn't happen, unless the population got below 10 million. If a pandemic hit, then it is unlikely that more than 75% of the population would die. With 10% of the population still alive, then most things would continue to operate somewhat normally.

Would you say we'd run out of anything modern (food, medications, etc.) within five years? 10?

And what happens after? Can I walk into a library and find a book to teach me how to make antibiotics? Or would that be impossible for the lay person without a proper lab setup?

Click to expand...

Production of many goods would stop, but there probably wouldn't be any significant stortages, except for imported goods, Tenpercent of 7 billion is 700,000,000, and that's about what the total population was in 1750.

mirandashell · Nov 8, 2011

Hmmmm but as pointed by aadams, a lot of that 700,000,000 live in cities. And city dwellers have no idea how to look after themselves with no infrastructure. A lot would die out of sheer apathy. And you've got all the people who are ill and need care. All those in comas. Immobile in hospital.

And how would people get to the stuff they need? How would they provide for themselves? By fighting for it. So there's a lot more dead. I mean, have you been to a January sale lately? Or to the launch of a new game? People fight for that stuff. Imagine what it would like to get the last bottle of aspirin in the chemist.

Losing 90 percent of the population is a big deal. It's not so meh as you make it sound.

Dani · Nov 8, 2011

aadams73 said:
I killed off most of the planet with a virus, too, and the answer to your question is: not too long.

People, for the most part, aren't going to be all civilized about this. They're going to grab and horde what they can (food, medicine, supplies), as soon as they can. The have-nots will then move in and try and take from the haves.

Aside from the natural side effect of utilities, businesses, etc. collapsing because there aren't enough workers, things are going to break down quickly as we set aside our civilized ways and become the animals we still are. We'll do whatever is necessary to survive, and much of the time it won't be pretty.

We've become a flabby species, really, and I think a lot of people would fold and die. It's become the human way to sit around and wait to be rescued. Folks are going to do a lot of sitting around and waiting before they even think about picking up a shovel or finding a cow to milk. By then it'll be too late; they'll die, cozied up to that plasma TV they looted from Wal-Mart.

Expiring medication is the least of it. It won't have time to expire. Plus who would care about the use-by date if that's all the medication they've got, anyway? I sure wouldn't be sitting around going, "Gee whizz, this Tylenol expired last month!"

Sure, there will be those of us who have the wits and will to form mutually beneficial communities, but for a long time that'll be the exception rather than the rule. Forty years ago, I might have said otherwise.

I don't even like these stories, but your insight into society is making me want to buy your book just because it seems more authentic. Srsly. I wouldn't have thought of half of what you did.

stray · Nov 8, 2011

Location is key. Where is the book set? Rural people will survive a lot longer than urban folks obviously. Where I used to live in upcountry Thailand people live for long periods of time from fruit, grains such as rice, fish in the rivers. Frogs and insects are a great source of protine.The weather is the same all year around and many people have never ate food from a can nor taken modern medicine. Is there contmination? Are animals effected? That's a massive factor. If the land and animals are contaminated then its a matter of days.

A great book I read as a kid was the SAS survival handbook by a guy called John Wiseman. Simple tricks for collecting water and making water pure are paramount. A spoonful of bleech in a gallon of contaiminated water should make it fine after boiling. Water is the first obsticle. You will die within three days without a source of pure water, so the first obvious thing for any suvivors to do is travel find a supply of water and move to and camp near a supply of drinkable water. Find a means of making fire and tools. If there are fish in that water and they build shelter they could survive for a long time, and possibly increase their numbers. To hang around in the cities raiding deminshing supplies would be foolish. Violence with other gangs of suvivors as we see in the films. Grab what you need, travel and find a place to rebuild a new, primitive way of living.

I guess the answer to the question you ask is; I don't know how long it would take for the stuff you think you need to run out. The compeling question is how much of the stuff that you think that you need do you really need to survive?

Great idea for a story, by the way.

debirlfan · Nov 8, 2011

When the gas runs out, I'd suggest building a still and brewing alcohol. Be warned though that it will screw up an engine that's not built to run on it.

How long until society collapses?

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