Some thoughts...
1) An AWACS flew low over my local park yesterday, headed south-east. Explaining where they were going to my daughters brought this latest war home in a way BBC News 24 doesn't.
2) If a war needs to be fought, it should be self-evident why the time is now, rather than last year or next year. Saddam may have WMDs doesn't cut it. Gaddafi has sent two tank battalions to destroy Benghazi does. I hate being in favour of wars, but intervention in this case is justified.
3) The phrase no-fly zone is hogwash, and the BBC should stop using it. It's not in the UN resolution, not in the plans laid out by the politicians, and not being carried out on the ground.
4) A well-planned war needs two things: achievable war aims, and a rough idea of how you get out. I don't actually see either right now.
5) Most wars are about regime change, or should be. This is probably true of this one, but that's not what the resolution says. Expect rancour down the line.
6) Prosecuting war criminal tyrants is good in theory, but it can concentrate the next tyrant's mind in the wrong way. There's an opportunity to flee the country Idi Amin-style, but when the bombs start falling, he's in a hole, and that makes him a desperate man.
7) Gaddafi's ceasefire was bollocks, but it had a logic. Hold up the west with words while you reconquer Benghazi and destroy the opposition. It nearly worked, and that's why the initial bombing was intensive.
8) Cameron seemed put out that Gaddafi fibbed. Politicians lie, Dave. Take a look at your election manifesto, and then at your coalition agreement.
9) Cameron's had a horrible Middle East crisis so far. Touring the region with arms companies in tow was stupid and embarrassing, but it had the happy side-effect of destroying his government's ridiculous and naive foreign policy. The Foreign Office is not a sales branch of the CBI.
10) Get a war wrong, and you look like Anthony Eden. Get it right, and you're Margaret Thatcher. If a cruise missile zaps Gaddafi in the next month, Dave's going to look like an all-conquering hero.
11) George Osborne is apparently in favour of a ground attack. Funny how the cash that's never there to fund libraries turns up when we want to pulverise foreigners.
12) The lack of leadership among the western leaders is alarming. Obama says he's taking a back seat, and I believe him. They probably think Yemen is going to go up. Libya is probably going to be Europe's responsibility, unless it goes tits up. Anyone remember who the EU President is? That's why appointing Benelux non-entities is a bad idea. How many squadrons has Luxembourg got?
13) When I say Europe, I mean the Entente Cordiale. Germany is a useless heap of toss when it comes to an international crisis, and every time someone refers to the Nazis when talking about modern Germany, it gives Merkel an excuse to let Britain and France do the fighting.
14) The USA is our most important ally, but France is our closest. The latter has been true for a hundred years, but we somehow don't quite believe it.
15) Canada is a brave and dutiful country whose contribution often gets overlooked. We should remember who our allies are.
16) The Stop the War Coalition is planning protests. I suspect there won't be anywhere near the level of dissent this time around.
1) An AWACS flew low over my local park yesterday, headed south-east. Explaining where they were going to my daughters brought this latest war home in a way BBC News 24 doesn't.
2) If a war needs to be fought, it should be self-evident why the time is now, rather than last year or next year. Saddam may have WMDs doesn't cut it. Gaddafi has sent two tank battalions to destroy Benghazi does. I hate being in favour of wars, but intervention in this case is justified.
3) The phrase no-fly zone is hogwash, and the BBC should stop using it. It's not in the UN resolution, not in the plans laid out by the politicians, and not being carried out on the ground.
4) A well-planned war needs two things: achievable war aims, and a rough idea of how you get out. I don't actually see either right now.
5) Most wars are about regime change, or should be. This is probably true of this one, but that's not what the resolution says. Expect rancour down the line.
6) Prosecuting war criminal tyrants is good in theory, but it can concentrate the next tyrant's mind in the wrong way. There's an opportunity to flee the country Idi Amin-style, but when the bombs start falling, he's in a hole, and that makes him a desperate man.
7) Gaddafi's ceasefire was bollocks, but it had a logic. Hold up the west with words while you reconquer Benghazi and destroy the opposition. It nearly worked, and that's why the initial bombing was intensive.
8) Cameron seemed put out that Gaddafi fibbed. Politicians lie, Dave. Take a look at your election manifesto, and then at your coalition agreement.
9) Cameron's had a horrible Middle East crisis so far. Touring the region with arms companies in tow was stupid and embarrassing, but it had the happy side-effect of destroying his government's ridiculous and naive foreign policy. The Foreign Office is not a sales branch of the CBI.
10) Get a war wrong, and you look like Anthony Eden. Get it right, and you're Margaret Thatcher. If a cruise missile zaps Gaddafi in the next month, Dave's going to look like an all-conquering hero.
11) George Osborne is apparently in favour of a ground attack. Funny how the cash that's never there to fund libraries turns up when we want to pulverise foreigners.
12) The lack of leadership among the western leaders is alarming. Obama says he's taking a back seat, and I believe him. They probably think Yemen is going to go up. Libya is probably going to be Europe's responsibility, unless it goes tits up. Anyone remember who the EU President is? That's why appointing Benelux non-entities is a bad idea. How many squadrons has Luxembourg got?
13) When I say Europe, I mean the Entente Cordiale. Germany is a useless heap of toss when it comes to an international crisis, and every time someone refers to the Nazis when talking about modern Germany, it gives Merkel an excuse to let Britain and France do the fighting.
14) The USA is our most important ally, but France is our closest. The latter has been true for a hundred years, but we somehow don't quite believe it.
15) Canada is a brave and dutiful country whose contribution often gets overlooked. We should remember who our allies are.
16) The Stop the War Coalition is planning protests. I suspect there won't be anywhere near the level of dissent this time around.
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