Sci-Fi vs Fantasy

[rmgil04]

I've been seeing more and more threads on email lists talking about how sci-fi is on the downturn and fantasy is eclipsing it. It is sounding more and more like most publishers aren't taking new writers in sci-fi, but possibly in fantasy. Is there any truth to this?

I've recently finished the first draft of a military sci-fi/space opera novel. Before going through the re-writes I was starting to draft another story as a brief diversion. This story could become either sci-fi if I use a technological approach, or fantasy if I make the catalyst/key element an unusual ability.

All else equal, which direction is probably the more marketable?

[ILove2Write]

I'm not an agent, but It seems to me that Sci fi has been on a bad run for awhile. I have no idea why. I actually prefer it to fantasy.

However, with that said, you should still send out your manuscript. I remember Kristin Nelson's blog from a couple of months ago where she got a query for military sci fi and asked for a partial. Not all agents are looking for fantasy.

[Jamesaritchie]

Well, I'd call it SF, not sci-fi, but fantasy has always eclisped science fiction. Science fiction, outside of movie tie-in books, has always been a very small field.

But don't try to write to the market on the assumption that one is more marketable than the other. It doesn't work this way. If you want to sell, just write the best possible book you can write.

[Danthia]

Write what you love. Science fiction is taking a beating right now, but things change. If you think you'll stand a better chance with fantasy, and the story can easily go there, nothing wrong with leaning in that direction. You don't want to follow trends or markets, but there's nothing wrong with angling a story to increase its chances. Fantasy would probably be the more marketable genre. But I wouldn't do it just because of that.

[rmgil04]

Regarding my completed draft novel, I will go back to it, but I'm taking a break and working on another project (short story or novella) that I could make sci-fi or fantasy.

The only difference would be going the sci-fi route would use a form of technology for the protagonist to use. If I go the urban fantasy route, the protagonist will discover a hidden ability that would accomplish the same ends.

Which direction would be lead to a more marketable story all else equal?

[RoseColoredSkies]

I think you already got your answer. You can do either. If you think you have a better chance selling it as fantasy, do that. If not, then don't and go with SF.

[Danthia]

For short stories, either works, as the market is pretty similar there. Actually, I think science fiction is more in demand there. I remember reading something about the magazine editors in need of good sci fi short stories.

Novels, fantasy is more likely to sell right now.