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maestrowork
01-11-2009, 09:50 AM
WGA:

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Burn After Reading - Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
Milk - Written by Dustin Lance Black
Vicky Cristina Barcelona - Written by Woody Allen
The Visitor - Written by Tom McCarthy
The Wrestler - Written by Robert Siegel

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Screenplay by Eric Roth
The Dark Knight - Screenplay by Jonathan Nolan & Christopher Nolan
Doubt - Screenplay by John Patrick Shanley
Frost/Nixon - Screenplay by Peter Morgan
Slumdog Millionaire - Screenplay by Simon Beaufoy

DOCUMENTARY SCREENPLAY
Boogie Man: The Lee Atwater Story - Written by Stefan Forbes & Noland Walker
Chicago 10 - Written by Brett Morgen
Fuel - Written by Johnny O'Hara
Gonzo: The Life and Work of Dr. Hunter S. Thompson - Screenplay by Alex Gibney
Waltz with Bashir - Written by Ari Folman



DGA:

Christopher Nolan for The Dark Knight

Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire

David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Ron Howard for Frost/Nixon

Gus Van Sant for Milk.


*These are the exact same nominees as the Producers Guild, which means these five are surefire Oscar noms.

katiemac
01-11-2009, 10:03 AM
Ha. I just wrote about this in the Dark Knight re-release thread. While I won't go so far as to say they'll be surefire nominations for the Oscars, I will say that any film that manages to get a nomination over any of these five is going to be considered an upset.

maestrowork
01-11-2009, 01:36 PM
I really can't see, at the point, how any other movies could pull an upset, with the exception of Doubt, which nabbed a SAG Best Cast nomination instead of the Dark Knight. Some may find the Dark Knight too commercial and "comic book/action adventure" to be honored with a Best Picture Oscar. Here's the list of SAG... which has been very good in predicting Oscar wins in the last few years (last year, in fact, only No Country for No Men was nominated for SAG, and it won the Oscar as well. Crash also won over Brokeback Mountain at SAG as well as the Oscars):

(SAG) Best Cast in Feature:

DOUBT (Miramax)
FROST/NIXON (Universal Pictures)
MILK (Focus Features)
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON (Paramount Pictures)


I think at the end, it comes down to commercial success (TDK) vs. old-school, sentimental favorite (Benjamin Button).

katiemac
01-11-2009, 09:21 PM
Well, the commercial success of The Dark Knight aside, I didn't really like Milk. Performance-wise it was pretty great and they deserve actor nominations, but other than that I was not impressed with the entire picture. I thought Doubt as a whole was far superior, and I'm still keeping an eye on The Wrestler to see if can pull ahead with anything aside from a nomination for Mickey Rourke. All I'm saying is, while the five films listed are definitely the most likely to be nominated, I'm not counting anything else out just yet.

I wouldn't be surprised in the least if the five films make the list, nor would I be surprised if something else snuck in.

maestrowork
01-11-2009, 09:37 PM
I personally think TDK would be a sure bet -- I mean, Raiders of the Lost Ark got a Best Picture nod right? Milk is an iffy choice, especially because of the gay content -- Doubt would probably take that slot. Frost/Nixon would be the honorable British film pick of the year. Slumdog would be the happy pick (just like Juno was), and Benjamin represents the old school Hollywood.

For actors, I'd really want to see Richard Jenkins finally getting his recognition -- the Visitor really was quite wonderful. Penn was great as Milk. And Rourke is more than likely to get a nod. I didn't really think Pitt was Oscar-worthy in Benjamin but he would be the "star" pick of the year.

katiemac
01-11-2009, 09:57 PM
Actually, I would have said Milk is any iffy choice in spite of the gay content--and by "gay content" I mean the inspirational underdog story. I haven't really noticed the Academy to be too hung up on prejudice in that way. But like I said, I just didn't think it was that great.

I haven't seen the Visitor so I can't comment, but Langella, Penn and Rourke will probably be on the best actor list. I'd like to see Sheen on there, too. No one is really talking about Pitt's performance so no surprise if he gets nixed.

It's actually funny now, remembering a couple of months ago where everyone was defecting the Best Actor pool for Best Supporting because supposedly the former was too full. Hoffman might have pulled a Best Actor nom if he'd chosen to stick in the race, but I think it's safe to say that Heath is going to sweep.

childeroland
01-11-2009, 10:56 PM
Would the gay content not give 'Milk' a pretty good shot this year, especially given how Prop 8 went? If there's a dark horse spot in this race, it may be between 'Doubt' and 'TDK'. (Wall*E is not getting a Best Pic nod, unfortunately).

katiemac
01-11-2009, 11:10 PM
Would the gay content not give 'Milk' a pretty good shot this year, especially given how Prop 8 went? If there's a dark horse spot in this race, it may be between 'Doubt' and 'TDK'. (Wall*E is not getting a Best Pic nod, unfortunately).

Really I think it's the movie itself not giving it a good shot. Hollywood is notorious for being more liberal, many in the industry speaking out against Prop 8. So really, no, I don't a relation at all between Milk's content and any lackluster results it has after the awards are handed out. Like I said, Penn and co. deserve any nominations they receive but I'd be very surprised, if not extremely disappointed, if Milk went with the home with Best Picture.

maestrowork
01-12-2009, 09:01 PM
I think MILK will have to settle for a Best Actor and (maybe) a Best Director nods only. Slumdog's win would give it a boost, but the GG is hardly a harbinger of Oscar picks.

maestrowork
01-15-2009, 06:27 PM
Piggybacking here:


BAFTA NOMINATIONS

BEST FILM

THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall, Cean Chaffin
FROST/NIXON Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Brian Grazer, Ron Howard
MILK Dan Jinks, Bruce Cohen
THE READER Anthony Minghella, Sydney Pollack, Donna Gigliotti, Redmond Morris
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE Christian Colson

OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
HUNGER Laura Hastings-Smith, Robin Gutch, Steve McQueen, Enda Walsh
IN BRUGES Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, Martin McDonagh
MAMMA MIA! Judy Craymer, Gary Goetzman, Phyllida Lloyd, Catherine Johnson
MAN ON WIRE Simon Chinn, James Marsh
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE Christian Colson, Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy

THE CARL FOREMAN AWARD FOR SPECIAL ACHIEVEMENT BY A BRITISH DIRECTOR, WRITER OR PRODUCER FOR THEIR FIRST FEATURE FILM
SIMON CHINN Producer – Man On Wire
JUDY CRAYMER Producer – Mamma Mia!
GARTH JENNINGS Writer – Son of Rambow
STEVE McQUEEN Director/Writer – Hunger
SOLON PAPADOPOULOS, ROY BOULTER Producers – Of Time And The City

DIRECTOR
CHANGELING Clint Eastwood
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON David Fincher
FROST/NIXON Ron Howard
THE READER Stephen Daldry
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE Danny Boyle

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BURN AFTER READING Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
CHANGELING J. Michael Straczynski
I’VE LOVED YOU SO LONG Philippe Claudel
IN BRUGES Martin McDonagh
MILK Dustin Lance Black

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON Eric Roth
FROST/NIXON Peter Morgan
THE READER David Hare
REVOLUTIONARY ROAD Justin Haythe
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE Simon Beaufoy

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
THE BAADER MEINHOF COMPLEX Bernard Eichinger, Uli Edel
GOMORRAH Domenico Procacci, Matteo Garrone
I'VE LOVED YOU SO LONG Yves Marmion, Philippe Claudel
PERSEPOLIS Marc-Antoine Robert, Xavier Rigault, Marjane Satrapi, Vincent Parannaud
WALTZ WITH BASHIR Serge Lalou, Gerhard Meixner, Yael Nahl Ieli, Ari Folman

ANIMATED FILM
PERSEPOLIS Marjane Satrapi, Vincent Parannaud
WALL-E Andrew Stanton
WALTZ WITH BASHIR Ari Folman

LEADING ACTOR
FRANK LANGELLA Frost/Nixon
DEV PATEL Slumdog Millionaire
SEAN PENN Milk
BRAD PITT The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
MICKEY ROURKE The Wrestler

LEADING ACTRESS
ANGELINA JOLIE Changeling
KRISTIN SCOTT THOMAS I’ve Loved You So Long
MERYL STREEP Doubt
KATE WINSLET The Reader
KATE WINSLET Revolutionary Road

SUPPORTING ACTOR
ROBERT DOWNEY JR. Tropic Thunder
BRENDAN GLEESON In Bruges
PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN Doubt
HEATH LEDGER The Dark Knight
BRAD PITT Burn After Reading

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
AMY ADAMS Doubt
PENÉLOPE CRUZ Vicky Cristina Barcelona
FREIDA PINTO Slumdog Millionaire
TILDA SWINTON Burn After Reading
MARISA TOMEI The Wrestler

MUSIC
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON Alexandre Desplat
THE DARK KNIGHT Hans Zimmer, James Newton Howard
MAMMA MIA! Benny Andersson, Björn Ulvaeus
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE A. R. Rahman
WALL•E Thomas Newman

CINEMATOGRAPHY
CHANGELING Tom Stern
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON Claudio Miranda
THE DARK KNIGHT Wally Pfister
THE READER Chris Menges, Roger Deakins
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE Anthony Dod Mantle

EDITING
CHANGELING Joel Cox, Gary D. Roach
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall
THE DARK KNIGHT Lee Smith
FROST/NIXON Mike Hill, Dan Hanley
IN BRUGES Jon Gregory
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE Chris Dickens

PRODUCTION DESIGN
CHANGELING James J. Murakami, Gary Fettis
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON Donald Graham Burt, Victor J. Zolfo
THE DARK KNIGHT Nathan Crowley, Peter Lando
REVOLUTIONARY ROAD Kristi Zea, Debra Schutt
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE Mark Digby, Michelle Day

COSTUME DESIGN
CHANGELING Deborah Hopper
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON Jacqueline West
THE DARK KNIGHT Lindy Hemming
THE DUCHESS Michael O'Connor
REVOLUTIONARY ROAD Albert Wolsky

SOUND
CHANGELING Walt Martin, Alan Robert Murray, John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff
THE DARK KNIGHT Lora Hirschberg, Richard King, Ed Novick, Gary Rizzo
QUANTUM OF SOLACE Eddy Joseph, Chris Munro, Mike Prestwood Smith, Mark Taylor
SLUMDOG MILLIONARE Glenn Freemantle, Resul Pookutty, Richard Pryke, Tom Sayers, Ian Tapp
WALL•E Ben Burtt, Tom Myers, Michael Semanick, Matthew Wood

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON Eric Barba, Craig Barron, Nathan McGuinness, Edson Williams
THE DARK KNIGHT Chris Corbould, Nick Davis, Paul Franklin, Tim Webber
INDIANA JONES AND THE KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL Pablo Helman
IRON MAN Shane Patrick Mahan, John Nelson, Ben Snow
QUANTUM OF SOLACE Chris Corbould, Kevin Tod Haug

MAKE UP & HAIR
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON Jean Black, Colleen Callaghan
THE DARK KNIGHT Peter Robb-King
THE DUCHESS Daniel Phillips, Jan Archibald
FROST/NIXON Edouard Henriques, Kim Santantonio
MILK Steven E. Anderson, Michael White

SHORT ANIMATION
CODSWALLOP Greg McLeod, Myles McLeod
VARMINTS Sue Goffe, Marc Craste
WALLACE AND GROMIT: A MATTER OF LOAF AND DEATH Steve Pegram, Nick Park, Bob Baker

SHORT FILM
KINGSLAND #1 THE DREAMER Kate Ogborn, Tony Grisoni
LOVE YOU MORE Adrian Sturges, Sam Taylor-Wood, Patrick Marber
RALPH Olivier Kaempfer, Alex Winckler
SEPTEMBER Stewart le Maréchal, Esther May Campbell
VOYAGES D’AFFAIRES (THE BUSINESS TRIP) Celine Quideau, Sean Ellis

THE ORANGE RISING STAR AWARD (voted for by the public)
MICHAEL CERA
NOEL CLARKE
MICHAEL FASSBENDER
REBECCA HALL
TOBY KEBBELL




* Interesting to note, Winslet is nominated for leading actress for both the READER and REVOLUTIONARY ROAD. She's most likely to be nominated for Supporting Actress for The READER at the Oscars.

* It's sad to see both Anthony Minghella and Sydney Pollack as producer of the READER. Two great filmmakers gone too soon.