With a Gallop 2 pt split

[Jimmyboy1]

This is quite interesting.

Ann has again done her homework. As the article states, things could actually be far, far different than they appear.

I did predict, with all things against my chances of being correct, we could very well be looking at the biggest upset in political history.

With coverage (in more ways than one) like no candidate ever by the MSM and Hollywood, this guy might very well be going back to Chicago.

I hope he didn't measure for the drapes already.

http://www.anncoulter.com/

Enjoy!
-Brought to you by the JBB

[donroc]

Be prepared to be dissed without counter arguments for daring to cite Coulter.

I have refused to answer two phone polls so far, which represents 2 votes for our candidates.

My prediction is this, which could be way off, but I have been on shakier limbs. The swing states will all go one way either for Obama or McCain. it will be a significant electoral victory, but the popular vote may still go to Obama. And we can expect legal challenges in several states.

[Monkey]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111211/Gallup-Daily-Obama-49-McCain-43.aspx

You cited one of the two polls done by Gallup for that time slot...the one that measured what they call "traditional" voters. It didn't count people without a voting history - such as the entire youth vote, which is leaning strongly in Obama's favor.

It was also done BEFORE the debates.

Gallup is presenting two likely voter estimates to see how preferences might vary under different turnout scenarios. The "expanded" model determines likely voters based only on current voting intentions. This estimate would take into account higher turnout among groups of voters traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and minorities. That model has generally produced results that closely match the registered voter figures, but with a lower undecided percentage, and show Obama up by six percentage points today, 51% to 45%.


Another thing to consider is that, electoral college wise, Obama enjoys a comfortable margin. It is possible to win the popular vote and not the EC vote, or the other way around.

Here's the tally in the swing states, via realclearpolitics.com:

Colorado .... Obama +5.8
Ohio .... Obama +3.2
Florida .... Obama +4.8
Nevada .... Obama +3.0
Missouri .... Obama +1.8
North Carolina .. Obama +1.2
Virginia .... Obama +8.1


Yep. Obama leads in ALL of them.

The RealClear Electoral Count sits at Obama 286....McCain 158....Toss Up 94 ...with only 270 needed to clench the nomination. The 286 that Obama has are all polling for him with numbers comfortably outside the margin of error.

So if the states go as they're going now, even if McCain picks up some big wins AND the popular vote, Obama can still take it.

[Monkey]

As to the Bradley Effect:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=95702879

[maestrowork]

It's not over yet either way. I agree with don, if McCain somehow holds on to the swing states that went to Bush in 2004, he'll win. The race is very close. Even Obama knows it, despite what the polls say. He's calling all his supporters to not "get cocky and complacent." I think that's the problem with polls -- they're not that accurate to begin with, and then people get carried away before the fat lady sings.

[maestrowork]

As to the Bradley Effect:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=95702879



I agree with the following point, even if you think I'm crazy to think that:

"The presidency is almost an anthropological leadership position. ... It represents the head of a tribe for many people," Walters says. "They want a president to be like them, look like them, etc. And to that extent, there's a lot of emotional content about who the president of the United States is. … Barack Obama — part of the politics of this election is that he's been trying to overcome that cultural barrier."

The consensus seems to be that while there are people who will not vote for Obama because he's black, there are probably a lot fewer of them who are willing to lie about it to pollsters.



As for Obama leading in the swing states... I would caution paying too much attention to the polls. I kind of agree with Don -- they would go either way, and my feeling is McCain. There's just too much obstacle for Obama to overcome, even in western PA where it traditionally went Democrat. Race is a silent issue there. I'd see at least VA and FL going to McCain, with OH once again a toss up. On the other hand, if they go the other way, we'll see an Obama landslide (well, not really a landslide, but a clear win).

It's going to be interesting.

[whistlelock]

I like http://www.electoral-vote.com/ for my polling information. They even give a "this day in 04" link too. Which is nice for comparing.

It's been interesting to see the changes in the map as things go along. West Virginia has been moving back and forth for a little bit now.

[Jimmyboy1]

Until tonight, I've never heard of the "Bradley Affect".

[rugcat]

On the other hand, if they go the other way, we'll see an Obama landslide (well, not really a landslide, but a clear win).

It's going to be interesting.I see either a narrow McCain victory or a large Obama victory. I don't think if Obama wins it will be that close.

Until a month ago, I thought McCain would prevail, but I now think the smart money has to be on Obama.

[clintl]

Here's what I think is a fairly convincing rebuttal to the notion of the Bradley Effect.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/the_bradley_effect_selective_m.html

[kuwisdelu]

I really think a great deal depends on the youth vote, which for the most part, gets polled very little. I was pretty surprised when I was actually polled last week, but chances are it wasn't a major poll. The question is will actually come out and vote this year or not? If many of them do, I think it'll be a clear Obama victory--if not, it can easily go to McCain.

[clintl]

I'm just going to flat out say this. Unless something else as dramatic as the market collapse happens and McCain responds in a way that is significantly stronger than Obama's response, McCain has no chance. It is not going to be close. McCain's negative ratings are too high for him to win. Right now, if you click on the "No Toss Up States" option at Real Clear Politics, Obama leads the electoral count by a 2-1 margin, which means he has a slight, though insignificant lead, in almost all of the toss-up states.

[maestrowork]

Right now, if you click on the "No Toss Up States" option at Real Clear Politics, Obama leads the electoral count by a 2-1 margin, which means he has a slight, though insignificant lead, in almost all of the toss-up states.

Still, I wouldn't depend on the polls to make any predictions. And the leads are small enough to still go either way. Statistically, I really can't give polls more credit than they really are. Remember, in 2004 Kerry led in the polls leading to the election, too. Granted, Obama's lead is better; still, nothing is guaranteed. McCain can still win enough swing states to win the election, especially OH, VA, and FL, which haven't voted for a Democrat since Clinton.

But rugcat was right: it's either going to be a slim win for McCain, or a wide one for Obama.

ETA: I stand corrected. Kerry trailed Bush in all the toss-up states in 2004, and he eventually lost those states. But Obama is leading in those states right now. Still, a lot can change in two and a half weeks.

[maestrowork]

Of course, looking at the actual Gallup polls, we should pay attention to the Independents -- we all know given the bases are pretty much set and split, the independents are going to make a great impact on the result. Right now, Obama has a 10 pt lead over McCain among registered Independents (49 vs. 39).

Another factor will be turnout. The Republicans are energized, because of Palin. But what will the turnout be? We know the Democrats are going to have a great turnout -- even if not all of them are voting for Obama, it still spells trouble for McCain. And we're going to see a huge number of youth (by far some of the most ardent Obama supporters) and black votes.

And don't say race doesn't factor in this election. The poll results, which not indicative of election day, show some interesting racial divides even as Obama leads in most polls:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108040/Candidate-Support-Race.aspx

[Monkey]

Granted, Obama's lead is better; still, nothing is guaranteed. McCain can still win enough swing states to win the election, especially OH, VA, and FL, which haven't voted for a Democrat since Clinton.
.

Right now, Obama has enough electorals that if states go as they are polling, McCain could win OH, VA, and FL and still lose by a handy margin.

I'm not saying that it's impossible for him to come back, but the chances are pretty slim. A lot of right-wingers are already writing the McCain campaign's political obituary and looking at what went wrong.

[Monkey]

Until a month ago, I thought McCain would prevail, but I now think the smart money has to be on Obama.



[...........................Obama..McCain]
Intrade Market Odds (http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_index.jsp?selConID=409933)...83.9 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#intrade).....15.9 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#intrade)


This is from RealClear, too.

[Celia Cyanide]

I really think a great deal depends on the youth vote, which for the most part, gets polled very little. I was pretty surprised when I was actually polled last week, but chances are it wasn't a major poll. The question is will actually come out and vote this year or not? If many of them do, I think it'll be a clear Obama victory--if not, it can easily go to McCain.

Yes. In the election 2 years ago, the youth vote was up. Not so much in '04. I think youth tend to vote when they are excited about a candidate, and not pissed off at the other one, and they weren't really excited about Kerry.

[donroc]

While in high school, I took Truman at 10 to 1 and cleaned up. Do not bet the farm yet.

[maestrowork]

While in high school, I took Truman at 10 to 1 and cleaned up. Do not bet the farm yet.

Was that during the Great Depression?

;)

[Jimmyboy1]

Now Don, if you had one of those newspapers declaring "victory" you'd be sitting pretty fat now. Ebay!

[donroc]

Was that during the Great Depression?

;)

For that one I give you the Joe Biden U.S. History Award. :tongue

[donroc]

I'd settle for my Superman and Batman #1s along with all the other hundreds I donated to woundered service at Letterman Hospital in S.F. in 1944 when I "outgrew" them.

[shawkins]

I'd settle for my Superman and Batman #1s along with all the other hundreds I donated to woundered service at Letterman Hospital in S.F. in 1944 when I "outgrew" them.

Seriously? Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, that hurts.

[Williebee]

I'd settle for my Superman and Batman #1s along with all the other hundreds I donated to woundered service at Letterman Hospital in S.F. in 1944 when I "outgrew" them.

Doesn't that just suck? I used to have a bumper sticker that read:

"IFONLYI'DA" to mourn all those lost/given away things.

[donroc]

Seriously? Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, that hurts.

My uncle had a pharmacy and every week he gave me for free the newest comic books. We had them stored in our bathroom in a closet next to the toilet seat, and often my parents' guests would not be seen for 45 minutes so engrossed were they with the magazines.

[donroc]

It was for a good cause at least instead of throwing them away or giving them to one of my unappreciative cousins or friends. I want to emphasize I was not the only one who donated comic books to the wounded.

[Jimmyboy1]

Speaking of 'ol Joe Biden...

Has he writte... er.. sorry... given any good speeches lately?

[shawkins]

It was for a good cause at least instead of throwing them away or giving them to one of my unappreciative cousins or friends. I want to emphasize I was not the only one who donated comic books to the wounded.

Just out of curiosity, was it/were they any good?

ETA: Sorry, Jimmy. Not trying to derail. I'm not aware of any speeches today, 10/17.

[donroc]

Just out of curiosity, was it/were they any good?

ETA: Sorry, Jimmy. Not trying to derail. I'm not aware of any speeches today, 10/17.

Not mint condition -- they had been handled by more than a few in our bathroom, but all were in reasonable condition with covers intact. I like to think now that the GIs appreciateed most Sheena, Queen of the Jungle, and Planet Comics because the babes were very well drawn and scantily clad.

[aruna]

If there was going to be a Bradley effect surely we would have seen it in the primaries. And Hillary would have won the nomination

[Monkey]

Gallop's poll is a rolling poll, and as I mentioned, the poll in the OP was based mostly on pre-debate numbers. Now that the poll is reflecting post-debate numbers, it has swung in Obama's favor.

The "traditional" poll, the one that was at 2 points, now has Obama up by 7 and the "expanded" one has him up by 10.